With subprimes coming to an end (about time), Now it’s time for the Option-arms and Alternative A-papers, which will tack on another trillion or so in write offs for companies which are already tinkering on bankruptcy (even with the bailout)
then in about 2-3 years, we’re going to see the credit crash as those millions of americans who have tens of thousands in credit card debt and other non-mortage loans default, especially if they start to lose jobs / give up as buying power decreases.
Heck, In my ranked MBA program, a vast majority of my fellow students have 10-25k in credit card debts which they just plan on paying off with their "high paying" MBA jobs- which they aren’t getting because everyone has hiring freezes. If these are supposed to be some of the "smart ones" among us, what do you make of the rest?
Although in the financial discussions, there seems to be backlash against the media for saying that the "majority of americans" are in MAJOR debt, as in fact it’s only a "very small percentage" (44%). Now, these articles are literally stating 44% is a small percentage- and that 55% are being very good trying to pay their bills off in time. However, I also read that the majority of bankruptcy’s are people who "do not spend wildly, but are in debt to to other reasons such as loss of jobs or health problems". If the job market turns downwards, buying power decreases, and salaries don’t keep up with inflation would that not suggest that even those who "try" are likely to rack up more debt? and isn’t it likely that this 44% is likely to increase to 50, 55%? In this case we are saying atleast almost 50%, and potentially more than 50% are likely to run into major credit and debt issues?
Then with credit card companies such as American Express already tinkering on bankruptcy, a CC card company going under would only add to the fun.
That in itself could be the next great depression. What do you think?
Now I could be taking this a little far, and I don’t expect anyone to agree with me beyond this, however, I raise yet another question- If over 1/2 of america loses their buying power and credit-worthyness all together, based on what I see in the Government now, I would presume that they would feel the need to step into action, and bailout the individuals- and in this situation, it seems like the only action which they could do is to take control over many aspects of the country, essentially creating an extreme socialist culture overnight.
Although I have my savings spread in Euros, Rupees, and Dollars, the intense globalization occurring as of the last 10 years means that money isn’t safe anywhere. So now I’m thinking maybe I should just rack up 30k in debt since I’ll be in the doghouse with everyone else anyway, and 5-10 years from now we’re all going to be in the same position whether we have 000 in the bank, or -000 in our credit history.
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